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Initially, the former US president appeared to take a resolute position on the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer should Vladimir Putin carried on blocking peace negotiations, the former president ultimately introduced considerable penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly hindered Putin's ability to fund his military invasion in the region.

However, via his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly created by US and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's plan would in practice favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite ringing proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", large portions of the initiative effectively undermine that very autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his corporate experience, the former president seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, like handing Russia a part of Ukraine's territory will please the president. But, Putin's military campaign is not simply about controlling a damaged region of economically weakened territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the responsible leadership that Putin's deepening dictatorship denies them.

Border Concessions

While keeping in place the presently divided oblasts of these areas, the proposal would compel Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been failed to seize in over a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukrainian military defenses severely weakened.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that represent a key impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, providing Putin a unobstructed way to the capital if he later choose to resume the hostilities.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would enable renewed hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to diminish the scale of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's initiative sets no similar limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's chosen by the people administration as radicals, Trump's proposal states: "Every Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has breached comparable treaties in the past – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its historical atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of seized land in the region to Kyiv – why should we have confidence in Russia this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international protection assurances. While the proposal threatens a "strong unified military response" should Russia restart its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars include fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not only block the nation alliance membership but also prohibit member states from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Russia from replenishing his weakened forces, restocking, and reinvading.

World Response

Another supplementary accord reportedly would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "significant, intentional, and continuous aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. But unlike a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's primary protection against future hostilities – the success of the side agreement would rely on the dedication of alliance members, such as the US administration, to respond militarily to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not