How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.