From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.
A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.
That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.
Public Fury, Private Calculations
Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.
“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”
These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.
A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.
Allies in Decline
For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.
Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.
“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”
Focus on the Main Front
Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.
“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.
Tangible Costs and New Threats
Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.
This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.
Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.
A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”
A Dark Optimism
Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.
“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”
