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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.